FOR the fifth year in a row, the biggest storyline entering the French Open is the same: is this the year that Novak Djokovic completes his career grand slam by winning the French Open. He’s had his chances over the last four years, reaching three finals and a semi-final, but has fallen short every time. Last year, he even beat Rafael Nadal in the quarter-finals, ending the King of Clay’s five-year run, but he still fell short in the final against Stan Wawrinka.

As usual, Djokovic will enter the tournament (which begins today) as one of the favourites and is expected by many to finally get over the hump and claim the French Open crown to complete his career grand slam.

But what if he doesn’t? What if he finds a way to lose the way he has at the last four editions of the tournaments?

While this is certainly not his last chance to win the French Open, if he does not win this time around, there are lots of reasons to start to doubt that he will ever win the biggest title that still eludes him.

Why this is the year?

There are lots of reasons why Novak Djokovic should be the favourite to win and why he has a great chance to win the title this year. 

First of all, he is at the height of his powers at the moment. He won the Australian Open this year and added three Masters 1 000 titles. Most of the tour still lives in fear of the world number one.

Any time he loses, even if it’s to high-level opponents, it’s considered a major upset. No matter how he plays, he goes into every match the favourite and has a mental advantage over his opponents.

He’s healthy, he’s somewhat young, and he’s capable of a higher level of tennis than anyone on the planet.

All that being said, if he does not win the title this year, a lot will change between now and next year’s event.

It’s easy to forget how old Djokovic is. Considering that his primary rivals, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer, are waning in their talents as they age while Djokovic continues to excel, he often comes off looking like a much younger man.

In reality, the Serb will be 29 today. 

If he does not win the title this year, he will be 30 when he makes his bid next year. In the Open Era, only nine men have won major titles after turning 30. Four of them won the French Open.

That’s not to say that Djokovic cannot win the French Open after he turns 30, but it will only get harder.

Eventually, he will begin to slow down physically. Especially with his slow, grinding game, it will be tougher for him to physically keep up with younger, fitter players. And in today’s game, young players are getting fitter and stronger.

Compared to his contemporaries, Djokovic has been very lucky with avoiding major injuries. Again, over time, his risk of injuries will only increase.

That heavy baseline game treads the line very finely and while he’s youngish and fit, he can continue to avoid them.

But just look at Roger Federer. 

The Swiss avoided injuries until he was in his early 30s, at which point a back injury nearly ended his career. This season, knee and back injuries have limited Federer’s action.

As he ages, Djokovic runs the risk of following suit. And there is no major tougher to win with physical limitations than the French Open. - Vavel